Interest on Small Saving Schemes - Clarification

Let me wish a Very Happy New Year to all my readers. In my blog on Small Saving Schemes dated Nov 15, I had brought to your notice that the Government had accepted the suggestions of a Committee to link the interest rates on small saving schemes to the market yield. It also said that the Government would announce the rates applicable to various investments on 1st of April every year. Even though the implications were well understood, some people had a doubt whether the interest rates on an existing instrument would be revised every year. The ministry of finance has now given a clarification that the interest on all small saving schemes, except Public Provident Fund (PPF) will remain fixed till its maturity. That means, when the rates are announced on 1st April, it would apply to all the investments made in instruments (other than PPF) during the relevant financial year. New rate, when announced during the next year would apply to subsequent investments only. So, if one invests in NSC on 15th June 2012, the rate announced by government on 1st April 2012 would apply to his investment and the same would remain fixed till its maturity. When the government announces new rates on 1st April 2013, such rate would apply only to those who invest in NSC during 2013-14.

But in case of PPF, this doesn’t work. PPF, unlike many other instruments, is a long term (15 year) deposit on which interest is paid on the outstanding balance every year. So, the interest on PPF account will be revised every year. From the point of view of Interest Rate Risk, it means the yield from all small saving instruments, other than PPF would remain constant, once invested. But when it comes to re-investments or investments planned annually over a period of time for availing tax benefits, one would have to face the fluctuations in interest rates.

Reliability of the Most Reliabale

Any research, analysis or even a commentary on the economy draws heavily on the macro-economic data.  When it comes to data, analysts all over the world unanimously agree that the most reliable data source is the Government.  They just accept the data provided by the government without even the slightest doubt on its reliability.  The data released by governments has various roles to play.  (a) It indicates the direction and momentum of the economy, which has great influence on the confidence levels of business enterprises; (b) It acts as guiding tool for attracting both domestic and foreign capital; (c) It influences the decisions of Foreign as well as Domestic Institutional Investors, and (d) It sends signals to the financial markets, taking them to new levels.  Such is the importance of data provided by the government, that many people eagerly wait for the release of the most recent data.  Now let us look at some recent headlines:

(a) Govt Admits Subsidy Math has Gone Awry (Economic Times, 8 Dec)
(b) $9B Goof-up in Export Numbers, Admits Govt (Economic Times, 10 Dec)
(c) Export Nos. Gaffe Adds $7.2B Headache to Govt (Economic Times, 15 Dec)
(d) Rangarajan Spots Sampling Errors in IIP Data (The Hindu, 21 Dec)

The first one is an error of forecasting, where the subsidy bill has overshot the budget estimates by a huge margin.  This is very much possible and does happen at times.  But the last three are calculation/estimation errors.  In the second case, "computer and human errors overstated India's export figures", says the report.  It gives further reasons as "wrong data entry, double counting of certain items and computer malfunction".  The difference was to the tune of $8.8Billion.  Within 5 days of revising the export numbers downwards, the government got the next shock.  The export data compiled by RBI for 2011-12 exceeded the government estimates by $7.2Billion.  The RBI data is considered to be more reliable as it is based on the actual payments received.  Then came the big announcement of IIP's contraction by 5.1% during October 2011.  This sent shock waves among the business fraternity and the financial markets alike.  And today, Dr. Rangarajan, Chairperson of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council spots sampling errors in the IIP numbers for Oct 2011.  He had expressed his shock and disbelief when the IIP numbers were released last week.

If one were to make any conclusion on the conditions of the economy based on the data released by the government, the data needs to be compiled properly and computed scientifically without errors.  With the advent of advanced computing technology, we have increased the frequency of reporting by shrinking the reporting interval.  In some cases, this type of increased frequency in reporting can only create unwanted panic in the market.  It looks like a doctor monitoring the temperature of his patient every 15 minutes and reporting the same to the patient.  It only adds to his panic, especially when the news is not good.  What is worse is that the doctors is using a flawed thermometer! 

Series on Financial Markets - V

Continuing with the discussion on raising capital by business entities, unlike what I mentioned in my earlier post, capital can also be raised directly from the savers.  Small businesses borrow money from the friends/relatives of the promoter directly; whereas large corporate houses raise money from public at large.  (There are various reasons why businesses do not fully depend on banks and financial institutions for capital, which is not explained here).  A business enterprise can raise capital in the form of debt or equity (ownership).  When an enterprise raises capital directly from the public, it is said to be raising the money from the 'Primary Market'.  Unlike many other forms of market, primary market is a notional one, with no specific location or office.  However, this market is regulated by the government through appropriate regulatory bodies.

Since there is no specific location; and savers, who would be interested in supplying capital to the firm are geographically scattered throughout the country, the firm has to put in place a complete system to reach the prospective suppliers of capital.  It resorts to the following processes and depends on the respective intermediaries in the process.
(a) Obtaining regulatory approvals (wherever required)
(b) Releasing advertisement inviting public to subscribe to the bonds/shares
(c) Preparing and printing prospectus containing various details of the issue
(d) Printing application forms
(e) Approaching brokers/sub-brokers to promote the issue
(f) Appointing registrars to manage the issue
(g) Appointing bankers to collect the payment etc.

Thus, as against loan from a bank or financial institution, the process of raising capital directly from the public involves lot of money (spent on the above activities) and it is time consuming.  Then why do businesses raise capital directly from public?

Series on Financial Markets - IV

Let us now understand the role of Financial Institutions in an economy.  These institutions act as intermediaries between the suppliers of capital and those in need of it.  It is always possible for the business enterprises to raise capital directly from the individuals who have surplus money.  But there are few problems:
(a) many individuals may have only small amounts of money as surplus
(b) the individual investors do not have the expertise to analyse the business that the firm is engaged in
(c) the individuals find it difficult to understand and assume the risks involved
(d) there is a question of credibility as the business enterprise may cheat the investors

This is where the role financial institutions becomes relevant.  Lets take commercial banks for example.  Banks collect small as well as large amounts of money from those who are willing to invest their surplus, make a big pool of money, which is then used for lending to business enterprises or individuals placing demand for money.  Thus the surplus money that would have directly flowed from the investors to the firm, now takes a detour through the bank.  This solves most of the above concerns.  Lets see how:
(a) individuals can deposit even small amounts as banks pool the funds
(b) banks have the expertise to analyse the business projects
(c) banks can reduce the risk of lending as they lend to many enterprises and thus diversify the risk
(d) banks are regulated by the government which brings in credibility (though not all banks share the same credibility and risk)

Similarly, the financial institutions like insurance companies, mutual funds, pension funds etc. act as financial intermediaries.  They are all regulated, though the extent of regulation differs.  The process of financial institutions bringing suppliers and users of funds together is known as 'Financial Inter-mediation'.  

Inflation, Interest Rates & Growth

Based on Sushma's comment on an earlier post, I thought of elaborating on the relationship between the three basic economic measures - inflation, interest rates and growth rate.  Inflation, as everyone knows, is the rise in prices of goods and services.  There are various factors contributing to inflation, and one among them is the excess supply of money in the economy.  Central banks (RBI in our case) use 'Monetary Policy' to control money supply and thus inflation.  In order to control money supply, RBI can resort to one of (or all of) the following actions: (a) open market operation, where it sells bonds and thus absorbs money from the market; (b) increase in interest rates (the rate at which it lends to banks), thus making the borrowings costlier for banks; and (c) increase in reserve requirements (percentage of deposits the banks are required to maintain with RBI), which leaves lower amounts of loanable funds with banks.  In all the above cases, the excess liquidity is sucked by RBI in order to reduce the inflation.

When banks are asked to pay higher interest while borrowing from RBI and are left with lesser amounts of loanable funds, they start charging higher interest rates on their loans.  This makes bank loans costlier.  On one side the individuals will borrow less amounts of money and thus reduce their demand for goods and services; whereas on the other side, with higher interest rates, they would start investing more in banks/govt bonds etc. 

But every economic action has a flip side.  When the central bank tries to control inflatilon, beyond a point, through tight monetary policy, demand for goods and services comes down heavily as the loans become unaffordable.  For example, when the interest rates are high, demand for housing comes down.  On the other hand, the industry will put its expansion plans on hold as the borrowed capital becomes costlier.  This reduces the overall economic activity of production of goods and services and thus the growth rate of the economy (measured in terms of GDP growth) slides down.  So, beyond a point, you control inflation by compromisng the growth!

IPO Pricing - A Big Puzzle!

Unlike many other products and services, pricing of IPOs is very tricky.  Our age-old Economic theory says that the best price emerges when demand and supply factors are allowed to freely interact.  With all market imperfections, interaction of demand and supply forces determine price in case of most of the products and services.  But when it comes to IPO pricing, what is being sold is not a product or service; but a portion of the ownership of an enterprise.  Thus, the price depends on the value of the enterprise at large.  A fair pricing of IPO is important as the under-pricing deprives capital to the issuer and over-pricing misleads the investor.  There are three popular methods of determining the price at which shares are to be offered by a company.  They are (a) fixed price; (b) book-building and (c) auction.

Until 1999, IPOs were made through fixed price offers in India.  Here, the issuing company, in consultation with its investment banker, decides the price at which the shares are to be issued.  The price and the quantity of shares offered are announced and the investors are asked to apply for the number of shares they would like to buy.  The inherent problem of this method was, 'how could the issuer decide the price?'  In most of the cases, there were huge under-pricing as the issuer, for the fear of the issue failing, was forced to price the shares below its actual value.  (I am ignoring huge over-pricing of issues by few promoters with an intention to cheat investors).  Our basic theory was compromised here as the demand side factors were not given participation in the process of pricing.

In 1999, Hughes Software became the first company in India to make IPO through the book-building route.  Here the issuer, again in consultation with the investment banker, announces a range of price (with a band of 20% or so).  The investors are asked to bid for shares with prices within the range.  The issue price is decided by considering the demand extracted through the bids.  Once the price is determined, all investors who submitted bids for the issue price and above are allotted shares at the issue price.  Here the demand side gets participation in the process of pricing in a limited manner as the price range is fixed by the issuer.

The third method, an auction, allows greater interaction between the demand and supply forces.  It can be a French Auction (tried by REC and NTPC last year) where the floor price is fixed and the bidders are asked to bid at floor price or above.  Or, it can be a Dutch Auction (not prevalent in India, but tried by companies like Google in USA), where the issuer fixes an extremely high price and asks the bidders to bid at lower prices.

Though lot of empirical research has been done on which method of pricing is the most suitable in terms of fair valuation, no conclusive evidence has emerged.  Thus pricing of IPOs remains a big puzzle.

Series on Financial Markets - III

The first post in this series emphasized the significance of transfer of money from the savers (investors) to the borrowers and the second one talked about various instruments (financial assets) available for such transfer.  Now let us look at the system that facilitates the interaction between the two groups.  An economy is divided into three sectors: (a) household sector, comprising of individuals; (b) business sector, comprising of various business enterprises and (c) the government.  Each of these sectors constitute entities who save as well as borrow.  For example some individuals save whereas some others borrow.  Same is the case with business units and the government.  So lending (same as saving) and borrowing happens among the three sectors as well as within the three sectors.  However, household sector is almost always net saver (with savings exceeding the borrowing) and the government almost always net borrower.

In order to have smooth interaction between the lenders and the borrowers, the following becomes necessary:
(a) proper instruments to facilitate the interaction
(b) a platform for them to interact, and
(c) well-defined rules and regulations

We have already discussed about the instruments (financial assets).  Financial markets and various financial institutions provide the platform for interaction among the lenders and borrowers.  Financial markets can be divided into primary market and secondary market.  Financial institutions take various forms like commercial banks, insurance firms, mutual funds etc.  Various regulators like RBI, SEBI, FMC, IRDA etc. are involved in  framing rules and regulations and ensuring their implementation.  Thus the system comprising of financial markets, financial institutions and regulators is known as 'The Financial System'.  Every country has its own financial system, even though the level of development of these systems differ from country to country.  In the absence of a well-developed financial system, the basic economic process of capital formation becomes constrained.